Pound to Hong Kong Dollar Forecast (Predictions for GBP to HKD) - October 2025

If you’re planning to send money between the UK and Hong Kong next month, here’s a straightforward breakdown of what’s happening with the British pound (GBP) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), and what you should know for October 2025.

GBP to HKD: Where It Stands

The British Pound (GBP) to Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) exchange rate has been moving within a fairly stable range recently, but there are signs of possible change as global economic events unfold.

As of now, GBP/HKD is sitting around 9.92 to 9.98 - staying close to the top end of its recent range, but not quite breaking higher.

What’s Driving GBP to HKD?

Several key factors are influencing the pound against the Hong Kong dollar:

1. UK Interest Rates

The Bank of England (BOE) has chosen not to raise or cut interest rates this month due to steady unemployment and mixed inflation signals.

This neutral stance means the pound isn’t getting a major boost from monetary policy at the moment.

2. Upcoming UK Data

Investors are watching new data on UK employment and inflation very closely.

If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could push the BOE to consider rate hikes, which would help strengthen GBP.

3. Global Market Outlook

With uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation and global central bank decisions, currencies like the GBP may experience volatility.

Any signs of weakness in the U.S. dollar might support the pound.

4. FX Platform Innovation in Hong Kong

New digital platforms like Finloop’s “CashPro” improve money movement efficiency in Hong Kong.

This doesn’t directly affect the exchange rate, but it can slightly support demand for HKD if investors prefer Hong Kong-based assets.

What Do the Charts Say?

Technical analysis (a way traders use historical price patterns to guess future movements) shows important levels forming for GBP/HKD:

• Strong support (a “floor” where price tends to bounce back up): Around 9.85

• Strong resistance (a “ceiling” price struggles to rise above): Around 10.05

The pair has been testing the lower 9.90s, and technical indicators suggest possible short-term sideways movement.

There’s also a potential bullish pattern forming (similar to GBP/USD’s “inverted head and shoulders” on larger charts), which might mean the pair could break higher, but only if backed by positive UK data and BOE comments.

What to Watch in October 2025

The following events could cause noticeable moves in GBP/HKD over the coming weeks:

• UK employment data release: If job numbers are strong, it could push GBP up.

• UK inflation data: Higher inflation could prompt interest rate hikes and boost the pound.

• Central bank meetings: What the BOE says about future rates will shape the outlook.

• Global market sentiment: Continued uncertainty elsewhere may either support or weaken GBP slightly, depending on whether investors rush to safety.

Risks Ahead

While the outlook for GBP is cautiously positive, there are also some risks:

• If UK inflation falls sharply, the BOE may lean toward cutting rates, weakening GBP.

• Political uncertainty or weak UK data could lead to a drop in confidence.

• If the U.S. interest rate outlook changes or capital flows shift to Asia, HKD could gain strength.

What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to HKD Abroad

If you're planning to send British pounds to Hong Kong dollars in the next month, the rate is currently sitting near favorable short-term levels.

If UK inflation data comes in high and the pound strengthens, you might get more HKD for your money.

If the data comes in weak or the Bank of England signals future rate cuts, the GBP could fall and you might get fewer Hong Kong dollars.

Consider sending your money sooner rather than later if you’re happy with the current rate of around 9.95. But if you’re flexible, watching the UK economic news next week could help you catch a better deal.