If you’re planning to send money from the UK to Europe or vice versa next month, here’s a simple breakdown of what’s happening with the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR), and what you can expect in October 2025.
GBP to EUR: Where It Stands
The GBP to EUR exchange rate is currently hovering around 1.15, having seen some ups and downs in recent weeks.
Neither currency has made a strong move, but subtle shifts point to possible changes ahead in the next month.
What’s Driving GBP to EUR?
Several economic and political factors are pushing the Pound and Euro in different directions:
1. Eurozone Strength
The Euro is gaining support thanks to solid economic signals from Europe, especially improved confidence and low unemployment, at 6.2%.
Investors are less worried about the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates soon.
2. UK Fiscal Concerns
While UK retail sales were better than expected recently, there are serious worries about government debt and future tax hikes.
This is making investors nervous about the Pound's long-term strength.
3. Manufacturing Weakness in the UK
UK manufacturing has been shrinking for almost a year.
Meanwhile, parts of Europe are showing signs of recovery based on recent economic activity.
4. U.S. Dollar Impact
The U.S. dollar has been weakening due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
A weaker dollar tends to lift the Euro more than the Pound, giving the Euro an extra boost.
What Do the Charts Say?
From a technical perspective (how traders view trends on price charts):
Key support levels for the EUR/GBP are around 0.8632 and 0.8670. If the Euro weakens below these levels, the Pound could gain.
Resistance levels (where the Euro might struggle to rise further) are near 0.8766. If the Euro breaks past this level, the Pound could weaken more.
The Pound is struggling to make a strong comeback. On longer-term charts, the Euro looks more likely to continue rising.
In simple terms, the Euro is showing signs of climbing further against the Pound, unless economic news drastically changes.
Live GBP/EUR Chart
What to Watch in October 2025
Here’s what could shake things up in the coming weeks:
Eurozone Inflation Data: If inflation weakens, talk of ECB rate cuts could return, which might weaken the Euro.
UK Autumn Budget Talk: As we get closer to the November budget, concerns about UK tax hikes or government spending could put pressure on the Pound.
Political News in France or the UK: Political instability in either region could affect the currency value.
Central Bank Commentary: Any updates from the Bank of England or the ECB can significantly move the exchange rate.
Risks Ahead
There are a few things that could unexpectedly change the outlook:
UK Government Uncertainty: Issues around borrowing, debt, or tax changes can lower investor confidence in the Pound.
Sudden Shifts in ECB Policy: If inflation drops further than expected, the ECB might change its tune about rate cuts sooner.
Global Risk Sentiment: A worldwide downturn or shock event could drive demand for safer currencies like the Euro, pressuring the Pound further.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to EUR Abroad
If you're planning to send British pounds to Euros in the next month, here's the bottom line:
Rates may get slightly worse for Pound holders if the European currency keeps getting stronger.
Right now, 1 Pound gets you around €1.15. But if current trends continue, that could drop closer to €1.13 or lower in the next few weeks.
If the Pound weakens further, it means you'll get fewer Euros for the same amount of pounds. For example, £1,000 today gets you roughly €1,150. Next month, it could be just €1,130 or less.
Consider sending money sooner rather than later, especially if you're watching for the best possible rate.
In short
The Pound is currently under slight pressure against the Euro and may lose more ground this month.
Better-than-expected European economic performance and concerns about UK fiscal policy are the main reasons.
If you're looking to convert pounds to Euros, acting sooner may help you lock in a better rate before potential declines.
