If you’re planning to send money from the UK to Europe or vice versa next month, here’s a simple breakdown of what’s happening with the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR), and what you can expect in January 2026.
GBP to EUR: Where It Stands
GBP to EUR has bounced back in recent weeks and is trading around the mid 1.14s. That puts it off the year’s lows, but still inside a broad, choppy range.
For the next month, the most likely path is sideways trading with sharp swings around major UK data and central bank messaging. The pound can still push higher in short bursts, but sustained gains may be harder.
What’s Driving GBP to EUR?
GBP/EUR is being pulled by interest rate expectations on both sides, plus growth worries.
1) Bank of England rate cut expectations (GBP driver)
The Bank of England has already started easing, and softer UK spending and weaker parts of the economy keep markets thinking more cuts could come. Lower UK rates usually make the pound less attractive, which can pull GBP to EUR down.
2) European Central Bank tone (EUR driver)
Recent ECB commentary has sounded less eager to cut and, at the margin, more “hawkish” than expected. If markets believe the ECB will hold rates higher for longer, that tends to support the euro.
3) Growth headlines and confidence (both sides)
UK growth worries are still a weight on sterling, even after some post budget relief. In the eurozone, Germany’s data remains a key swing factor, because weak German numbers can quickly drag the euro.
4) Global risk mood and geopolitics
When markets feel calm, sterling can benefit. When geopolitical worries rise, the euro can behave unpredictably, sometimes weakening if Europe is seen closer to the risk.
What Do the Charts Say?
Think of these as “floors” and “ceilings” that often influence where the rate pauses or turns.
Key levels (GBP per 1 EUR):
Level | Why it matters | What it could mean |
|---|---|---|
1.120 to 1.130 | Major support zone | If GBP/EUR falls here, it often finds buyers and stabilises |
1.141 to 1.146 | Near-term pivot area | A “decision zone” for the next move up or down |
1.160 | Upper range resistance | Rallies often struggle here unless there is strong UK news |
1.163 | Stretch upside target | Possible if sentiment stays GBP-positive for a few weeks |
Recent price action suggests a range: dips have tended to find support, but pushes higher have also struggled to break out cleanly.
Live GBP/EUR Chart
What to Watch in the Next Month
These events can move GBP to EUR quickly:
UK GDP and activity data: Weak prints can knock the pound lower fast.
UK jobs and inflation signals: Anything that increases the chance of quicker BoE cuts is usually GBP-negative.
German industrial production and trade: Poor German numbers can soften the euro and lift GBP/EUR.
Central bank messaging: Any hint the ECB stays firm while the BoE turns more dovish favours EUR over GBP.
Risks Ahead
These are the main surprises we can expect next month:
A sharper UK slowdown: Could push GBP/EUR down toward the low 1.13s.
ECB turns more hawkish than markets expect: Could strengthen EUR and cap GBP/EUR rallies.
Sudden geopolitical escalation in Europe: Can cause messy, headline-driven moves that are hard to plan around.
Bond market wobble in the UK: If UK borrowing costs jump again, confidence in GBP can fade quickly.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to EUR Abroad
Consider this if you’re planning to send GBP to EUR this month:
Base case for the next month: GBP/EUR likely swings within roughly 1.13 to 1.16, with the mid 1.14s a common “magnet” level.
If you need euros soon: Consider splitting your transfer into 2 or 3 chunks to reduce the risk of picking a bad day.
If you can wait for a better rate: Watch for rallies toward 1.155 to 1.160 as potential opportunities to convert.
If the rate slips toward 1.13 to 1.135: That zone has often stabilised in the past, but a weak UK data surprise could still push it lower.
Rule of thumb: a move from 1.14 to 1.16 is about 1.8% more euros for the same pounds, which is meaningful on big transfers.
In short
GBP to EUR is likely to stay choppy next month, with a mild bias toward range trading rather than a big trend.
Watch UK growth data and BoE cut expectations for pound weakness, and ECB tone plus German data for euro direction.
If you are transferring money, plan around the 1.13 support area and 1.16 resistance area, and consider staggering your conversion to manage timing risk.
