If you’re planning to send money from the UK to Europe or vice versa next month, here’s a simple breakdown of what’s happening with the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR), and what you can expect in July 2025.
What’s Driving the Currency Pair?
The EUR/GBP exchange rate (how many euros you get for each pound) has been moving around a lot lately. Here’s what’s influencing the ups and downs:
UK Economy is Looking Mixed
UK retail sales (how much people are shopping) were weaker than expected in May, falling by 2.7%. That’s a sign people are spending less, which can weaken the Pound.
However, inflation in the UK is still relatively high at 3.4%, and the Bank of England (BoE) has been slow to cut interest rates. They kept rates at 4.25% in the last meeting, which supports the Pound in the short run.
Europe is Cooling Down
The European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut interest rates by 0.25%, trying to support weak economic growth and low inflation. While that typically weakens the Euro, the ECB is now suggesting that more cuts may not be needed immediately, which helps the Euro hold steady.
Trade and Politics Add Uncertainty
There are concerns around possible US tariffs on EU goods. If these trade tensions rise, the Euro could face more pressure.
Live GBP/EUR Chart
What Does the Chart Say?
The EUR/GBP pair is now trading around the 0.8550 mark.
It recently bounced from a low around 0.8350, which looks like a strong support level (think of it like a “floor”).
The next resistance (a “ceiling”) is around 0.8590. If the Euro strengthens more, it could push toward this level next.
What to Expect in July
Most analysts expect the Euro to stay slightly stronger than the Pound in the short term. This is because the BoE may cut rates in August while the ECB slows or pauses its rate cuts.
If data continues to show the UK economy weakening, the Pound could lose more value.
However, if Germany and the broader EU show very weak growth as well, that would limit how high the Euro can go.
Forecast Summary
Likely Range: EUR/GBP may trade between 0.8475 (support) and 0.8590 (resistance) in July.
Bias: Slightly in favor of the Euro if UK economic data continues to disappoint and the BoE hints at a rate cut.
Risks: Political headlines, especially about trade or new inflation numbers, could cause unexpected moves.
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What This Means for You
If you're:
Sending GBP to Europe (e.g., to Spain, France, Germany)
The Pound may give you slightly less Euros in July if current trends continue.
If the Pound gains strength, it could give you a better exchange rate. Consider watching for dips in the exchange rate to send more cheaply.
Sending EUR to the UK
You may get more Pounds for your Euros in the coming weeks compared to June.
However, if Europe’s economy slows or trade tensions rise, this benefit could shrink, so timing matters.
Tip: If possible, monitor the rate near 0.8550. If it jumps above 0.8590, sending from Europe gets more favorable. If it drops below 0.8475, sending from the UK gets better.
Simple Takeaway
In the next month, the Euro may stay a bit stronger than the British Pound. This matters if you're planning to send money across borders. Small changes in interest rates and economic news can shift the exchange rate, so keep an eye on the top levels (0.8590) and bottom levels (0.8475) – they act like pressure points for the market.
Actionable Tip: If you're not in a rush to send money, consider using a currency alert tool to notify you when the rate hits your preferred level. It could save you some pounds or euros!
