If you're planning to send British pounds (GBP) abroad in July, here’s a simple guide to what’s happening with the exchange rate, and what it might mean for your money.
GBP to USD: Where It Stands
The pound is teetering below the 1.35 mark against the US dollar, with recent moves bouncing between 1.34 and 1.36.
After some short-term rises due to weaker US jobs data, recent UK financial worries and stronger US data have pushed GBP/USD lower again.
Right now, the pound is in an uncertain spot, and the direction could tip either way based on upcoming data and decisions from central banks.
What’s Driving GBP to USD?
There’s a mix of forces affecting GBP/USD right now. Here are the main ones in simple terms:
UK Government Borrowing
Britain’s government is borrowing more than expected, which has scared off some investors.
That pushes up long-term UK debt interest rates and weakens the pound. It makes the UK look riskier to international money.
Interest Rate Cuts
In the US, the Federal Reserve looks like it will start cutting interest rates soon because of rising unemployment and soft job data.
Normally, this would weaken the dollar. But it hasn’t happened yet because US economic numbers are still better than the UK’s.
UK Inflation
The Bank of England isn’t cutting rates any time soon because inflation remains high in the UK.
This usually helps the pound, but with UK debt concerns and political uncertainty around the autumn budget, investors are cautious.
Politics
Leadership reshuffles and unclear fiscal policy in the UK are also spooking markets and may be limiting pound strength.
What Do the Charts Say?
Technically, GBP/USD is in a tricky place:
Support (or the "floor") is found in the 1.3315 to 1.3280 zone. If the pair drops below that, we could see a bigger fall.
Resistance (the "ceiling") is around 1.3548 to 1.3600. If GBP/USD moves above this, we could see gains back to 1.38.
Right now, market indicators are slightly negative, and the pound is showing signs of weakness unless something changes, like a major policy shift or better UK data.
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What to Watch in October 2025
Here are the top things to keep tabs on for September and early October:
UK Autumn Budget details and any updates on government borrowing
Bank of England updates on interest rates or inflation expectations
US labor market figures, which could determine how quickly the Fed cuts rates
A possible breakout above 1.36 or a drop below 1.33, which could trigger bigger moves
Risks Ahead
Several risks could shift GBP/USD sharply:
If UK borrowing continues to rise without a clear plan, the pound could weaken further.
If US data keeps surprising to the upside, the dollar could stay strong.
Political instability in the UK, especially around the budget, may weaken confidence in the pound.
If there’s a strong shift in inflation or economic data, either central bank may adjust policy quickly.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to USD Abroad
If you're planning to send pounds to the US, things are choppy.
Right now, the pound doesn’t look very strong, and you may get slightly fewer dollars for your money compared to earlier in the year.
If the pound drops below 1.33, it could get worse. But if it climbs above 1.36, things might improve for those transferring money to the US.
If you’re not in a rush, keep a close eye on the 1.35 to 1.36 level.
You might get a better rate if the pound breaks that ceiling, especially if US data weakens further.
Consider small, regular transfers if you want to avoid the risk of sudden changes.
In short:
The British pound is under pressure right now due to concerns about UK government finances and stronger-than-expected US data.
While short-term gains are still possible, the overall picture points to limited upside and further downside risk unless UK conditions improve.
Key price levels to watch are 1.33 for a drop and 1.36 for a breakout.
Those sending money to the US may want to act soon or wait for a confirmed bounce above 1.36 before exchanging.
