If you're planning to send British Pounds (GBP) abroad in the next month, especially to a country using US Dollars (USD), here’s what you need to know in simple terms.
What’s Driving the Pound Right Now?
Over the last few weeks, the British Pound (GBP) has moved higher against the US Dollar (USD).
This means your pound has been worth more when converting into dollars.
But moving forward into July 2025, things could get a bit bumpy. Let’s break down why and what to expect:
UK economy shows mixed signals:
Some strong data (like services and construction) has made the pound stronger.
But soft retail sales and weak job data are causing worry. Because of this, many expect the Bank of England (BoE) might cut interest rates soon to boost the economy.
Lower interest rates usually make the pound weaker.
The U.S. dollar is also going through swings:
Some US economic data (like jobs and consumer confidence) looks strong, which supports the dollar.
However, ongoing worries like high US government debt, possible rate cuts later this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and trade tensions make the US dollar unstable.
So overall, the dollar remains weak for now, helping the pound rise.
What Are Experts Watching?
Many traders are watching GBP/USD, the exchange rate between the British Pound and US Dollar.
The pair has recently bounced between 1.34 and 1.36 — this means 1 pound is worth between $1.34 and $1.36 USD.
If the pound moves above 1.36 strongly, the next possible level is around 1.37–1.40 (that would be very strong).
If bad news in the UK or good news in the US comes in, it could push the value back toward 1.33 or even 1.32.
What This Means (For You)
If you’re sending GBP to someone in the US (or need to convert pounds to dollars), exchange rates are currently in your favor compared to earlier this year.
But that strength might not last forever.
If the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates soon, or if strong US economic data continues, the pound could weaken again, making your money worth less when sending abroad.
On the flip side, if UK inflation or growth surprises to the upside and the BoE delays any rate cuts, the pound could push even higher, making your money stretch further overseas.
Key Levels to Watch
Think of these like “speed bumps” or “goal lines” for the exchange rate:
Support (if pound weakens): 1.3450 → 1.3310 → 1.3210
Breaking below these levels might mean it becomes more expensive to send GBP abroad.
Resistance (if pound strengthens): 1.3600 → 1.3705 → 1.3816 → 1.4000
Moving above these levels would mean more value for your pound when converting to USD.
Bottom Line: What Should You Consider?
If you're planning to send GBP abroad soon and the rate is above 1.36, that’s a good deal; consider locking it in.
If you can wait and speculate, there’s a small chance the pound rises further, but it may drop first if the BoE cuts rates.
Keep a close eye around mid-July (especially after UK inflation and U.S. labor market data), which could trigger big moves in the exchange rate.
Tip: Exchange rates can change fast. If sending larger amounts, consider watching the markets daily or speaking to a money transfer expert.
The pound is doing ok now, but there are risks ahead that could lower its value. Make your money transfers soon if you don’t want to take chances.
