If you're planning to send British pounds (GBP) abroad in July, here’s a simple guide to what’s happening with the exchange rate, and what it might mean for your money.
GBP to USD – Where It Stands
The British pound has been strong against the U.S. dollar (USD) so far this year, climbing to its highest point since 2021.
It’s currently trading between $1.34 and $1.3650, meaning £1 buys you around $1.35-$1.36. That’s great news if you’re converting pounds to dollars, your money goes further.
However, that strength is starting to level off. A major drop isn't expected, but the pound may not keep rising as easily in July.
What’s Driving the Pound?
Weak U.S. Dollar
Most of the pound’s recent gains are due to weakness in the U.S. dollar, not UK economic strength. Reasons include:
Disappointing U.S. jobs and inflation data
Political pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
Concerns about a slowing U.S. economy
UK Economy - Mixed Signals
The UK has had a few surprise wins, like better-than-expected construction activity, but challenges remain:
Inflation, especially in services, is still high
Economic growth is cooling
The Bank of England may cut interest rates soon, which could weaken the pound
Interest Rates Matter
What central banks do will shape the pound’s future:
If the Fed cuts U.S. interest rates → the dollar stays weak (good for GBP)
If the Bank of England also cuts rates → that could hurt the pound
What Do the Charts Say?
The pound is currently trading between two key technical levels:
Support: Around $1.34 - the lowest level it has held recently
Resistance: Around $1.3650 - the level it’s struggling to rise above
If GBP/USD drops below 1.34, it could fall further toward $1.30. However, if it breaks above 1.3650, it might rise toward $1.38 or even $1.40..
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What to Watch in July
Keep an eye on the following key events, which could move the exchange rate:
U.S. Jobs and Inflation Reports: Weak data may weaken the dollar further and strengthen the pound
UK Inflation Numbers: If inflation remains high, the BoE may delay rate cuts, supporting the pound
Central Bank Updates: Any surprises or changes in tone from the BoE or Fed can shift markets quickly
Risks Ahead
Be aware of potential downside risks:
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic recovery could push the dollar up and the pound down
If the UK cuts interest rates earlier than expected, the pound could weaken
Political or geopolitical uncertainty could add market volatility
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP Abroad
If You're Sending GBP to USD Soon:
Now is a good time, especially if you’re planning to make a large transfer. GBP is near a multi-year high, so you’ll get more dollars per pound.
If it breaks above 1.3650, even better, but if it falls below 1.34, your rate may worsen.
If you decide to wait, make sure to watch those levels:
A break above 1.3650 could mean a better rate is coming
A drop toward 1.30 might be a sign to act sooner
The pound is in a strong position right now, but it may flatten or dip in July.
If you’re sending money abroad and want certainty, consider locking in today’s rate, especially if you see signs of market uncertainty ahead.
