If you're planning to send British pounds (GBP) abroad in July, here’s a simple guide to what’s happening with the exchange rate, and what it might mean for your money.
GBP to USD: Where It Stands
Right now, the pound is trading in a tight zone against the US dollar, hovering between about 1.33 and 1.35.
This means 1 British pound is currently worth around 1.34 US dollars. But market signals suggest this may change soon.
What’s Driving GBP to USD?
Several big picture factors are moving this exchange rate:
Interest Rates
In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates high for longer.
This makes the US dollar attractive to investors, boosting its value.
In contrast, the Bank of England in the UK is close to ending its interest rate hikes, which can weaken the pound.
Economic Data
Investors are closely watching inflation and job data from both the UK and the US.
Strong US data tends to boost the dollar. UK economic numbers have been weaker, adding pressure to the pound.
Global Risks
Problems like a possible US government shutdown and trade tensions with China are affecting markets globally.
These risks tend to benefit the US dollar, which is often seen as a “safe haven” currency during uncertain times.
Investor Sentiment
Confidence in technology stocks in the US has strengthened the dollar a bit more.
Meanwhile, UK-specific issues, like high inflation and budget concerns, are weighing on the pound.
What Do the Charts Say?
Looking at the technical charts:
The pound is sitting near key support at around 1.33 to 1.3350. If it falls below this level, it could drop to 1.32 or even 1.30.
Resistance levels (where the pound might struggle to go higher) are around 1.3470 to 1.35. If it breaks above these, a rise toward 1.36 or 1.38 could follow.
Right now, the market is "range-bound," meaning the exchange rate is stuck between set levels. But this may not last. Multiple technical patterns suggest a breakout (strong move in one direction) is coming soon.
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What to Watch in November 2025
In the coming weeks, key events and data could shift the GBP to USD rate:
US inflation and jobs data: Strong numbers could strengthen the dollar further and lower the GBP/USD rate.
UK inflation numbers: If inflation stays high, the Bank of England might delay cutting interest rates, which could help the pound stay stable.
Any news from central banks: Unexpected comments from either the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve could trigger fast moves in the exchange rate.
Global political risks: A worsening US shutdown, new issues with China, or other surprises could create more volatility (sudden movement).
Risks Ahead
Risks that could move the exchange rate include:
A breakdown below 1.33 could trigger further pound weakness.
A sudden shift by central banks or bad economic data could lead to sharp movement.
Political surprises, especially in the US or UK, could cause unexpected changes in the rate.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to USD Abroad
If you’re planning to send pounds to the US soon, you may want to do it now or monitor closely:
If the pound drops below 1.33, the exchange rate could worsen (you get fewer dollars for the same pounds).
If you’re not in a hurry, watch to see if the rate climbs above 1.35. That could give you more value when converting pounds to dollars.
Consider locking in the rate if it's at or near the top of the range (close to 1.35), especially if you think it might drop soon.
In short:
The pound is stuck in a narrow trading range, but not for much longer.
Most signs point to potential weakness ahead due to strong US data and a more cautious UK outlook.
If you're sending money from the UK to the US, now may be a good time to act or plan carefully, especially if the pound falls below the key 1.33 level.
Watch the markets for big data releases, and aim to convert when the rate is closest to 1.35 for better value.
