If you’re sending money between the UK and Canada, here’s a quick guide to what’s happening with the British pound (GBP) and the Canadian dollar (CAD), and what it could mean for your transfers in November 2025.
What’s Driving GBP to CAD?
Right now, GBP to CAD is being pushed and pulled by a few important things:
1. Weak UK Growth
The British economy is barely growing, with GDP only up 0.1%. This is making some investors worry that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut interest rates soon, which can lower the value of the Pound.
2. Inflation & Rates in Canada
Inflation in Canada is bouncing around the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target. Markets are watching closely to see if the BoC will respond by cutting interest rates. If they do, that can weaken the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
3. Oil Prices
The Canadian Dollar often moves with oil prices, since Canada is a big oil exporter. Recently, oil prices have dropped due to weak global demand, which could hurt the CAD.
4. Central Bank Talk
Upcoming speeches and decisions by BoE and BoC leaders will be key. The tone of these comments (either aggressive or cautious) can sway the GBP/CAD rate.
What Do the Charts Say?
From a technical point of view, GBP/CAD is showing signs of a long-term uptrend, meaning the Pound has generally been getting stronger against the Canadian Dollar.
The most important support level right now is around 1.8730, if it stays above this, GBP/CAD may try to climb back to test resistance near 1.9000, a key “ceiling” where gains tend to pause.
However, there's also a pattern that hints at possible short-term weakness. A “dark cloud cover” pattern has formed, meaning there could be a dip before the next move higher.
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What to Watch in November 2025
Here’s what could move GBP/CAD in the next four weeks:
UK GDP Updates: Any signs the UK economy is improving could lift the Pound.
BoE Decision and Comments: If the Bank of England sounds more confident and doesn’t cut rates, the Pound might rise.
Canadian Jobs and Inflation Reports: Weak results could push the CAD lower.
Oil Prices: Falling oil would likely weaken the CAD.
Global Sentiment: Risk of global tensions or recession fears could benefit the safer Pound short term.
Risks Ahead
Some things could shake up GBP/CAD unexpectedly:
Surprise BoE rate cut because of poor UK growth
Canadian economic data stronger than expected, lifting CAD
Sudden jump in oil prices, boosting CAD value
Shocks in global markets pulling money into safer currencies (benefiting GBP or CAD depending on type of risk)
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to CAD Abroad
If you're sending Pounds to Canada soon, right now you’re getting a good exchange rate historically, as GBP/CAD is near multi-year highs.
If GBP/CAD stays above 1.8730, you may want to transfer sooner rather than later to lock in value before any possible short-term pullback.
If it rises toward 1.9000, you'll get even more Canadian Dollars for your Pounds, but waiting can be risky if the Pound falls.
If GBP drops because of a BoE rate cut or weak UK data, CAD may strengthen, giving you fewer dollars for your Pounds.
In short
GBP to CAD is still in a broader uptrend with potential to rise further, but short-term dips are likely due to uncertain UK growth and shifting oil and inflation trends.
If you’re planning on transferring money from the UK to Canada in the next month, keep an eye on if the pair stays above 1.8730.
If it breaks below that, it could mean a weaker Pound and worse exchange rate for you.
Now may still be a good time to send money, especially if GBP pushes toward 1.9000 again.
